Pew Global Attitudes Project
Global Economic Gloom -- China and India Notable Exceptions
But Many Publics Expect U.S. Foreign Policy to Improve Under Next President
Five years after the start of the war in Iraq, the image of the United States abroad remains far less positive than it was before the war and at the beginning of the century. However, the latest survey by the Pew Global Attitudes Project finds some encouraging signs for America's global image for the first time this decade.
Favorable views of the United States have increased modestly since 2007 in 10 of 21 countries where comparative data are available. Perhaps more importantly, the polling finds many people around the world paying close attention to the U.S. presidential election. Moreover -- except in countries that are extremely anti-American -- those who are paying attention generally believe the next president may well change U.S. foreign policy for the better. In nearly every country surveyed, greater numbers express confidence in presidential candidate Barack Obama than in John McCain.
However, the survey of more than 24,000 people in 24 countries, conducted March 17 to April 21, finds another change in global opinion that could present a formidable challenge to the United States in the future. Around the world, people have a new concern: slumping economic conditions. And they have a familiar complaint -- most think the U.S. is having a considerable influence on their economy, and it is largely seen as a negative one.
Majorities in 18 of the 24 countries surveyed describe current economic conditions in their country as bad. Assessments have worsened over the past year among countries surveyed in both this year and 2007. The median percentage rating their national economy as bad rose from 50% in 2007 to 61% in the current poll. The proportion of respondents expressing a positive view of their nation's economy has declined in 14 of the 22 countries since last year.
The publics of two emerging Asian superpowers -- China and India -- remain upbeat about national economic conditions, though Indians are less positive than they were a year ago. In contrast, some of the most negative evaluations of economic conditions come from citizens of advanced Western countries. Positive views of the economy have declined sharply over the past year in Great Britain, the United States and Spain. France, where most people were already quite negative about the economy, registered a further decline; in the current survey, just 19% of the French view the national economy as good, down from 30% in 2007.
While American and Chinese publics are at opposite poles with the respect to opinions about their national economies, the new Global Attitudes survey finds growing symmetry in the way that the United States and China are viewed by people around the world. Overall, favorable ratings of the two countries are fairly comparable as China's image has slipped a bit and the U.S. image, if anything, has improved slightly.
Both the United States and China are widely viewed as taking a unilateralist approach in their relations with other nations, while at the same time both are seen as having considerable influence on other countries. And as global warming is of increasing importance to the citizens of the world, both the U.S, and China are criticized for the way they deal with environmental problems.
Blaming the United States
Large majorities in countries ranging from economically advanced Great Britain and Germany to developing nations such as Egypt and Indonesia say that what happens in the American economy affects economic conditions in their own countries. With only a few exceptions, the American economy is now seen as having a negative impact on national economies, both large and small, in all parts of the world.
The view that the American economy is hurting their national economies is most prevalent among the publics of Western Europe. About seven-in-ten in Great Britain, Germany (72% each) and France (70%) say that the U.S. economy is having a negative impact on economic conditions in their country. India and Nigeria are the only nations surveyed where more than a third of respondents express a positive view of America's economic influence.
U.S. Favorability Edges Up
Despite these economic concerns, there is little evidence that the overall image of the United States has slipped further as a consequence. In fact, positive views of the United States have risen sharply in Tanzania (by 19 points) and South Korea (12 points), and by smaller but significant margins in Indonesia, China, India and Poland. Overall, opinions of the United States are most positive in South Korea, Poland, India and in the three African countries surveyed this year -- Tanzania, Nigeria and South Africa.
However, positive opinions of the United States have declined by 11 points in Japan -- a traditional U.S. ally -- and in neighboring Mexico (by nine points). The image of the United States also remains overwhelmingly negative in most of the predominantly Muslim countries surveyed, though no more so than in recent years.
Fewer than a quarter of respondents express positive opinions of the United States in Egypt (22%), Jordan (19%), Pakistan (19%) and Turkey (12%). Large majorities in Turkey and Pakistan say they think of the United States as "more of an enemy" rather than as "more of a friend" (70% in Turkey; 60% in Pakistan). In Lebanon, 80% of Shia Muslims consider the United States to be more of an enemy.
As in recent years, favorable views of the United States remain fairly low among the publics of a number of its traditional Western European allies. Solid majorities continue to express unfavorable opinions of the U.S. in France, Germany and Spain. Great Britain is the only country -- of four Western European nations surveyed --where a majority (53%) expresses a positive view of the U.S.
Next American President
The survey also finds a widespread belief that U.S. foreign policy "will change for the better" after the inauguration of a new American president next year. Among people who have been following the election, large majorities in France (68%), Spain (67%) and Germany (64%) say that they believe that U.S. foreign policy will improve after the election. This sentiment is also common in the African countries included in the survey -- Nigeria (67%), South Africa (66%) and Tanzania (65%).
Yet this belief is far from universal. In Jordan and Egypt, more people who are following the election say they expect new leadership to change U.S. foreign policy for the worse than say they expect a change for the better. Two-thirds of the Japanese (67%) who are following the election say it will not bring about much change in U.S. foreign policy. That is the plurality opinion in Russia and Turkey as well.
There is considerable interest in the presidential campaign in the surveyed countries. A large majority of Japanese say they are following the election very closely (24%) or somewhat closely (59%). As a point of comparison, a third of Americans are following the election very closely, with another 47% saying they are tracking the campaign somewhat closely.
At least half or more of respondents in such countries as Germany, Australia, Great Britain and Jordan are closely following the election. There is less interest in the election in many other countries, including France, where 40% are focusing on the campaign, Mexico (33%) and Spain (25%).
People around the world who have been paying attention to the American election express more confidence in Barack Obama than in John McCain to do the right thing regarding world affairs. McCain is rated lower than Obama in every country surveyed, except for the United States where his rating matches Obama's, as well as in Jordan and Pakistan where few people have confidence in either candidate.
Obama's advantage over McCain is overwhelming in the Western European countries surveyed: Fully 84% of the French who have been following the election say they have confidence in Obama to do the right thing regarding world affairs, compared with 33% who say that about McCain. The differences in ratings for Obama and McCain are about as large in Spain and Germany, and are only somewhat narrower in Great Britain.